Feb
27
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based independent think-tank, released a report on February 21, 2008 noting that several armed groups are mobilizing in various parts of Kenya along ethno-political lines.
These groups were responsible for much of the post-elections violence. Since Kofi Annan’s mediating team has been leading the peace efforts, the groups had halted their activities, although there are now suggestions that they are losing patience. This has suddenly taken a more sinister turn, with the suspension of the talks and Annan’s comment that ‘the mediating team had done its work, now Kibaki and Odinga must do theirs’.
Moreover, following the suspension, the opposition party, ODM, has called for mass action on February 28. The East African Standard reported that a letter had been sent to the Police Commissioner, informing him that nationwide peace meetings would be held.
It takes very little for peaceful street protests to deteriorate into looting, violence and other criminal activities, particularly when tensions are high and there is little confidence in state authority or legitimacy.
According to the ICG, “Extremists and militia are preparing for new confrontation on both camps and ODM [the opposition] believes that if international mediation fails, its only protection against repression and hope for a settlement will be its capacity to raise the stakes through violence.”
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (IRIN) gives an overview of the various armed groups operating in Kenya. These include the Mungiki, the Kalenjin warriors, the Sabaot Land Defence Force and the Taliban. The Mungiki is particularly violent and although officially banned, continues to operate secretively and amidst speculation of political support. After the December elections, the group sees itself as the “defender of the beleaguered Kikuyu in the Rift Valley,” says the ICG. The group is also recruiting youth from the many IDP camps.
The Daily Nation has reported today that huge amounts of money are being raised by private businessmen and professionals to fund ‘private armies’. “From Nairobi and Central Province to the Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western, communities in Kenya are looking inwards, retreating to the villages and mobilising resources, preparing for an eventuality that is too grave to contemplate.”
Community elders are apparently gathering hundreds of men at a time, preaching war. While such gatherings have in the past only been called to organize defence against cattle rustlers, they now have “an alarming new function, linking the 11 sub-clans in the region to plan a united offensive to secure their land”.
One of these ‘warriors’ said, “We tried to have our voice heard at the ballot box, but they ignored us. We tried to protest peacefully, but the police shot us and tear-gassed us.”
As the ICG noted, the ODM and PNU no longer “control the local violence. There is a chance to restore state authority and prevent renewed major fighting only if local leaders understand that their grievances are being addressed”.
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This shows how deep the roots of the conflict appear to be. It appears as though even if the government and the ODM reach agreement on power sharing, violence might continue, fuelled by wider grievances.