Apr
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Can the U.S. sustain caps on greenhouse gas emissions?
April 7, 2008 | | 1 Comment
By Eva Chang (9)
Recently, the United States expressed its green advocacy with the enactment of the Climate Security Act 2008 that provided caps on greenhouse gas emissions as target until 2050. With the successful achievement of these caps, the United States could be able to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions by 19 percent in 2020 and 71 percent by 2050 relative to its greenhouse gas emissions in 2005.
These percentages reflect a significant decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions since the current UNFCCC reports on greenhouse gas emissions show that the United States remains a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency reports that the source of greenhouse gas emissions cuts across many industries including the energy, manufacturing, transportation and agriculture sector. Caps on greenhouse gas emissions then mean that these various sectors have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions involves economic costs, which is the justification of the United States in not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Does the enactment of the Climate Security Act 2008 mean that the United States has found a way to manage the economic cost?
Unfortunately, even the extent of the economic cost has been subject to differences in opinion. There is a common agreement that controlling greenhouse gas emissions in the business sector would reduce the gross domestic product of the United States. However, different opinions emerged on the extent of decrease. The National Association of Manufacturers together with the American Council for Capital Formation, representing the business sectors , reported that gross domestic product would decrease by $650 billion by 2030 with the implementation of the green legislation with adverse effects on production and employment. The Environmental Protection Agency, representing the government, issued its report stating that the decrease in GDP could reach $238 to $983 billion in 2030. The Clean Air Task Force, representing non-profit environmental advocates, showed that the decrease in GDP by 2030 could reach $182 billion.
By 2030, GDP without the Climate Security Act 2008 would reach $26 trillion; but with the highest projected costs of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, this would decrease by 3.8 percent, a relative small quantity that could have dire impacts on the American Economy. Expected decrease in GDP could support sound policymaking to address this economic cost. Yet, these are just projections that could change depending on future developments as well as the reactions of the business sector to greenhouse gas emission controls.
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I wouldn’t put too much stock in that NAM/ACCF study since NAM/ACCF hand-picked the data …
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/1/91526/73267/22/488140