Apr
23
The Unpredictable Future of US Presidential Race
April 23, 2008 | | Leave a Comment
By Maggie ZUO Yitong
Yesterday, in the Pennsylvania primaries, The Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, leading a record of 10 percent more to defeat her opponent Obama. Thus, the United States at home and abroad, many people have this kind of suspicion: Whether Hillary can take this opportunity to reverse her disadvantages, and eventually won the Democratic presidential candidate nomination.
The reason why Hillary can win in Pennsylvania is mainly because in this state she has many “natural advantages.” In Pennsylvania whites accounted for 83% of the total population, and also it has the second largest elderly population in the United State. Many whites, women, elderly and blue-collar workers in support of Hillary Clinton. Secondly, U.S. economy is still suffering from the loan-to-crisis, in such the troubled background, Hillary Clinton’s ability and experience in dealing with economic issues help her a lot in the election. According to the public opinion polls , it showed that the vast majority of Pennsylvania voters think the economy is the most important issues, and regarding the experience in resolving the economic crisis and livelihood issues, the support rate of Hillary is 14% more than Obama. In addition, the Pennsylvania governor and the two major cities, the mayor of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have come forward for the Hillary campaign; all of these factors increase the odds of Hillary Clinton’s win.
Although Hillary Clinton got victory in Pennsylvania, which add new vitality to her tough campaign, but it is still difficult to quickly reverse her overall disadvantage relative to the Obama’s advantage. I believe the competition between Hillary and Obama will continue. This is decided by the Democratic Party primaries system. In addition, Hillary and Obama, in different gender, age, race and economic class voters, have their own relatively stable support groups, which makes election difficult to become “asymmetrical” phenomenon.
Recently, the general views of America Politics, it is impossible for Hillary or Obama to win enough positions to be nominated for representation of the Democratic Party before June 3rd. Therefore, their fate will largely depend on the “Super Delegates”, who account for 20% of the total numbers in the National People’s Congress of America. Many American scholars believe that the final results of the Democratic nomination battle will come forward at least July.
On the other hand, John McCain does not seem to grasp the opportunity to show himself. Since April, all the candidates have released their tax records. Obama announced a total household income in 2007 had reached the top of the history, reaching 4.2 million U.S. dollars. Hillary Clinton announced that she and her husband, the average annual income is 13.6 million U.S. dollars. However, until April 18th, John McCain is the last one to announce his income situation, the income in last year is about 405,000 U.S. dollars, far less than Obama and Hillary. But he didn’t announce his wife’s income, the reasons is to “protect kids”, according to the media’s conjecture, his wife owns more than 10 million U.S. dollars of assets, their family income in 2007 should be over 710,000 U.S. dollars. To release family income and tax bill, it is a good chance for the candidates to show their “transparency”, but this time, John McCain do not do very well.
(Week Ten Post)
